美國聯準會維持利率不變，4票異議創逾30年紀錄

根據美國聯準會在2026年4月29日發布的資料，美國聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)於最新政策會議中，決定將聯邦基金利率目標區間維持在3.5%至3.75%不變，連續第3次按兵不動。

此次決策會議最受市場矚目之處，在於12名投票委員中，罕見出現高達4位決策官員對政策聲明表達反對意見，創下1992年10月以來最多異議票的歷史紀錄。在反對票中，理事米倫(Stephen Miran)主張應於本次會議中將利率調降0.25個百分點(即1碼)。另一方面，克里夫蘭聯準銀行總裁哈瑪克(Beth Hammack)、明尼亞波利聯準銀行總裁卡斯哈里(Neel Kashkari)以及達拉斯聯準銀行總裁洛根(Lorie Logan)雖然支持維持現有聯邦資金利率目標區間不變，但不支持在聲明中納入「寬鬆傾向」的措辭。這3位聯準銀行總裁主要擔憂美國通貨膨脹長期居高不下的風險，對於聲明中暗示未來可能調整利率的字眼抱持謹慎態度。

在經濟與通貨膨脹前景方面，聯準會聲明指出，近期指標顯示美國經濟活動持續以穩健的步伐擴張，然而就業成長平均而言維持在較低水準，失業率在最近幾個月也幾乎沒有變化。值得注意的是，目前通貨膨脹依舊偏高，部分原因反映近期全球能源價格呈現上升趨勢。此外，中東局勢的演變大幅加深經濟前景的不確定性。聯準會強調，在考慮未來對聯邦資金利率目標區間進行額外調整的程度與時機時，將仔細評估新公布的數據、不斷變化的前景以及風險平衡，同時堅決致力於支持充分就業，並使通貨膨脹回到2%的目標。

人事異動與內部調查方面，現任聯準會主席鮑威爾(Jerome Powell)在會後記者會上證實，他的主席任期將於2026年5月15日屆滿，隨後他將繼續留任聯準會理事一職，確切留任期間目前尚未決定。他亦恭喜華許(Kevin Warsh)的提名案在參議院銀行委員會取得進展，未來華許就任理事後，將被選為新任聯準會主席與聯邦公開市場委員會主席。除了人事布局，鮑威爾也對美國司法部決定撤銷針對聯準會華盛頓總部翻修工程成本超支的刑事調查表示歡迎，並重申希望確保這項調查徹底結束。

針對未來的貨幣政策方向，鮑威爾重申委員會目前並未考慮升息，但政策聲明的重心正趨向使用更中性的措辭。金融市場對此解讀偏向鷹派，期貨市場反映出投資人對未來降息已經不抱希望。股市方面，標準普爾500指數微跌但整體變動不大。然而在鮑威爾暗示下次會議可能調整前瞻指引後，債券殖利率攀升至當日最高點。外匯市場中，衡量美元兌6種主要貨幣走勢的美元指數(DXY)則上漲0.3%，來到98.940。

根據聯準會公布的會後記者會資料，美國聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)於最新會議中決定將聯邦資金利率目標區間維持在3.5%至3.75%不變。聯準會主席鮑威爾(Jerome Powell)在會後記者會上指出，目前的貨幣政策立場適當，目的在持續推動就業極大化與2%的通貨膨脹目標。

在經濟數據方面，美國經濟活動持續以穩健的步伐擴張。消費者支出展現韌性，企業固定投資也維持快速擴張，但房地產部門的活動依然疲弱。勞動力市場部分，3月的失業率為4.3%，近幾個月幾乎沒有變化。就業增加數量維持在較低水準，主要反映過去1年勞動力成長放緩，原因包含移民人數減少與勞動參與率下降，同時勞動力需求也明顯轉弱。

通貨膨脹方面，近期數據呈現上升趨勢。受到中東衝突導致全球能源價格攀升的影響，截至3月的12個月內，整體個人消費支出(PCE)物價指數上升3.5%。如果排除波動較大的食品與能源類別，核心PCE物價指數則上升3.2%，這相對較高的數據主要反映關稅對商品部門價格的影響。儘管短期通貨膨脹預期因油價上漲而升高，但多數長期預期仍符合聯準會2%的目標。

針對未來的貨幣政策，鮑威爾強調經濟前景高度不確定，中東衝突更增加此不確定性。短期內，能源價格攀升將推高整體通貨膨脹，但對經濟的潛在影響範圍與持續時間仍不明朗。聯準會的貨幣政策並未預設路徑，未來將以每次會議的數據與風險平衡作為決策依據。

本次記者會是鮑威爾作為聯準會主席的最後一次登台。他證實其主席任期將於2026年5月15日結束，隨後將轉任聯準會理事。針對接任人選，鮑威爾祝賀華許(Kevin Warsh)的提名案在參議院銀行委員會取得進展，並表示一旦華許獲得確認並宣誓就職，將接任聯準會主席。

此外，鮑威爾特別提及美國司法部已撤銷相關的刑事調查。他對此發展感到鼓舞，並表示除了司法部承諾除非有聯準會督察長的刑事移交，否則不會重啟調查外，他個人也將繼續留任理事，直到確保這項調查在透明與具備最終結論的情況下徹底結束。鮑威爾重申，未來將保持低調，並堅信聯準會將持續以客觀與誠信的態度為美國民眾服務。

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement (April 29, 2026)

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, on average, and the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months. Inflation is elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Developments in the Middle East are contributing to a high level of uncertainty about the economic outlook. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.

In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3‑1/2 to 3‑3/4 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Philip N. Jefferson; Anna Paulson; and Christopher J. Waller. Voting against this action were Stephen I. Miran, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting; and Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie K. Logan, who supported maintaining the target range for the federal funds rate but did not support inclusion of an easing bias in the statement at this time.

Implementation Note issued April 29, 2026

Decisions Regarding Monetary Policy Implementation

The Federal Reserve has made the following decisions to implement the monetary policy stance announced by the Federal Open Market Committee in its statement on April 29, 2026:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the interest rate paid on reserve balances at 3.65 percent, effective April 30, 2026.
• As part of its policy decision, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to direct the Open Market Desk at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the System Open Market Account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive:

"Effective April 30, 2026, the Federal Open Market Committee directs the Desk to:

• Undertake open market operations as necessary to maintain the federal funds rate in a target range of 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent.
• Conduct standing overnight repurchase agreement operations at a rate of 3.75 percent.
• Conduct standing overnight reverse repurchase agreement operations at an offering rate of 3.5 percent and with a per-counterparty limit of $160 billion per day.
• Increase the System Open Market Account holdings of securities through purchases of Treasury bills and, if needed, other Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 3 years or less to maintain an ample level of reserves.
• Roll over at auction all principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities. Reinvest all principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of agency securities into Treasury bills."

• In a related action, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to approve the establishment of the primary credit rate at the existing level of 3.75 percent.

This information will be updated as appropriate to reflect decisions of the Federal Open Market Committee or the Board of Governors regarding details of the Federal Reserve's operational tools and approach used to implement monetary policy.

圖資來源：聯準會