聯準會維持利率不變，鮑威爾示警通膨與中東變數

根據聯準會在2026年3月18日發布的資料，聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)結束最新的政策會議，決議將聯邦基金利率目標區間維持在3.5%至3.75%不變。這項決策是以11票贊成、1票反對通過，其中理事米倫(Stephen I. Miran)投下反對票，他主張在本次會議應降息0.25個百分點。同時，聯準會也公布實施貨幣政策的相關細節，包含準備金餘額利率維持在3.65%，常設隔夜附買回操作利率為3.75%，常設隔夜附賣回操作利率為3.5%，且每個交易對手每日上限為1,600億美元，主要信用利率也維持在3.75%的既有水準。聯準會將透過公開市場操作，確保聯邦基金利率維持在目標區間內。

聯準會主席鮑威爾(Jerome Powell)在會後記者會上全面剖析目前的經濟局勢。他強調，聯準會始終專注於實現最大化就業與穩定物價的雙重使命，為美國民眾謀求福祉。目前的可用指標顯示，美國經濟活動正以穩健的步調擴張，其中消費者支出展現出極強的韌性，企業的固定投資也持續擴大，相較之下，房地產部門的活動則依然疲軟。在最新的經濟預測摘要(SEP)中，與會官員預測今年實質國內生產毛額(GDP)將成長2.4%，明年則成長2.3%，表現略強於去年12月的預測。

在勞動市場方面，2月的失業率為4.4%，自去年夏末以來幾乎沒有變化。近期的就業機會增加數量處於低檔，鮑威爾解釋，過去一年就業成長步伐放緩，很大一部分反映勞動力成長速度的下降，主因是移民減少與勞動參與率降低，同時勞動需求也明顯疲軟。其他包含職缺、裁員、招聘與名目工資成長等指標，近幾個月來變化不大。官員預測今年底的失業率中位數將落在4.4%，隨後將小幅下降。

針對備受關注的通膨議題，鮑威爾指出，雖然通膨已經從2022年年中的高點大幅回落，但相較於聯準會2%的長期目標，目前仍呈現略高的狀態。根據消費者物價指數(CPI)與其他數據的估算，截至2月為止的12個月，整體個人消費支出(PCE)物價指數的年增率為2.8%，而剔除波動較大的食品與能源類別後，核心PCE物價指數的年增率為3.0%。這些較高的數據主要反映商品部門的通膨，而這部分受到關稅效應的推升。

此外，中東局勢的發展對美國經濟的影響充滿不確定性。鮑威爾說明，近期由於中東地區供應中斷導致油價大幅上漲，進而推升近期的通膨預期，不過多數較長期的通膨預期指標仍與2%的目標保持一致。在本次的預測中，今年整體PCE通膨率中位數預估為2.7%，明年為2.2%，均高於去年12月的預測。鮑威爾強調，短期的能源價格上漲將推升整體通膨，但目前要評估對經濟潛在影響的範圍與持續時間仍為時過早。若未見到通膨降溫有所進展，特別是受到關稅推升的商品通膨，聯準會將不會啟動降息。

聯準會自去年9月至12月共調降0.75個百分點的政策利率，將其降至合理的中性預估區間內，目前的政策立場有助於穩定勞動市場並讓通膨恢復向下的趨勢。與會官員預測今年底適當的聯邦基金利率中位數為3.4%，明年底為3.1%，與去年12月持平。這意味著多數官員預期今年仍有降息空間，但貨幣政策並沒有預先設定的路線，將會在每次會議中逐次做出決策。鮑威爾重申，聯準會將保持客觀、誠信，並致力於服務美國民眾。

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement (March 18, 2026)

Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, and the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months. Inflation remains somewhat elevated.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.

In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3‑1/2 to 3‑3/4 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Beth M. Hammack; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Lorie K. Logan; Anna Paulson; and Christopher J. Waller. Voting against this action was Stephen I. Miran, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting.

Implementation Note issued March 18, 2026 (March 18, 2026)

Decisions Regarding Monetary Policy Implementation

The Federal Reserve has made the following decisions to implement the monetary policy stance announced by the Federal Open Market Committee in its statement on March 18, 2026:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the interest rate paid on reserve balances at 3.65 percent, effective March 19, 2026.
• As part of its policy decision, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to direct the Open Market Desk at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the System Open Market Account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive:

"Effective March 19, 2026, the Federal Open Market Committee directs the Desk to:

• Undertake open market operations as necessary to maintain the federal funds rate in a target range of 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent.
• Conduct standing overnight repurchase agreement operations at a rate of 3.75 percent.
• Conduct standing overnight reverse repurchase agreement operations at an offering rate of 3.5 percent and with a per-counterparty limit of $160 billion per day.
• Increase the System Open Market Account holdings of securities through purchases of Treasury bills and, if needed, other Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 3 years or less to maintain an ample level of reserves.
• Roll over at auction all principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities. Reinvest all principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of agency securities into Treasury bills."

• In a related action, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to approve the establishment of the primary credit rate at the existing level of 3.75 percent.

This information will be updated as appropriate to reflect decisions of the Federal Open Market Committee or the Board of Governors regarding details of the Federal Reserve's operational tools and approach used to implement monetary policy.

圖資來源：美國聯準會(經濟展望)